Moscow: In late 2024, North Korea deployed troops to bolster Russian defenses in the Kursk region against Ukrainian forces. International officials have estimated that between 14,000 and 15,000 North Korean troops were initially sent to assist Russia in its ongoing war in Ukraine.
According to Deutsche Welle, Ukrainian and international intelligence agencies now suspect that North Korea is planning to send an additional 30,000 to 50,000 troops to Russia. Ukrainian officials have also reported that North Korean ballistic missiles are being launched from Russian territory, intensifying the conflict. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has expressed concerns that North Korea’s enhanced combat and weapons experience could pose a heightened security threat to both Ukraine and the broader Asia-Pacific region.
Observers have offered mixed responses to Zelenskyy’s statements. Oleksandr Kovalenko, a military and political expert at the Ukrainian Center for Security Studies, suggested that these new North Korean forces would likely be deployed to secure Russia’s border territories, including Kursk and potentially southwestern Voronezh. Kovalenko stated that this deployment could free up Russian forces for frontline battles in Vovchansk, Kharkiv, Sumy, or Chernihiv. However, he does not anticipate North Korean troops actively fighting within Ukrainian territory.
Russian military analyst Ruslan Leviev concurs, emphasizing the distinction between defending Russian territory and engaging in combat on internationally recognized Ukrainian land. Leviev noted that there is no substantial evidence of a significant North Korean presence in Russia and asserted that Moscow has sufficient troops without resorting to foreign reinforcements. He pointed to Russia’s active military operations since mid-July as evidence of their ongoing capabilities.
Economist Janis Kluge from the German Institute for International and Security Affairs supports this view, noting that despite strains in Russia’s recruitment campaign, the country still manages to recruit around 1,000 contract soldiers daily. Intelligence on North Korea’s missile capabilities, specifically the KN-23 and KN-24 systems, is less speculative. Ukraine’s Main Directorate of Intelligence (HUR) reports that North Korea has delivered 148 such missiles since 2025, and a tragic incident in July highlighted their destructive potential when a missile struck a home near Ukraine’s Kryvyi Rih, resulting in civilian casualties.
The HUR also reported that a North Korean missile unit is deploying to Russia’s Voronezh region, potentially equipped with 120 ballistic missiles. While President Zelenskyy sees this as an indication of depleted Russian reserves, Kovalenko believes it signifies Russia’s intent to increase missile deployments to spread terror.
Ukrainian military sources compare North Korean missiles to Russia’s Iskander systems, noting a greater payload and range but lower accuracy. Military expert Yuri Fyodorov describes these missiles as “instruments of terror,” suggesting deliberate targeting of residential areas by Russia. As Ukraine’s stockpile of US-made Patriot air-defense systems runs low, Leviev emphasized the growing importance of ballistic missiles in the conflict.
Leviev noted an increase in Russia’s missile launches this summer compared to previous years. Should Russia’s missile supply diminish by winter, he anticipates reliance on North Korean reserves to maintain pressure on Ukraine, preventing them from regrouping or counterattacking effectively.