Rabat: Morocco is projected to achieve a growth rate of 4.5% in 2026, based on a set of assumptions regarding the national and international environment, including an average Brent crude oil price of $65 per barrel, a butane gas price of $500 per ton, and cereal production of 70 million quintals.

According to Agence Marocaine De Presse, the projections also consider an exchange rate of 10.007 Dirhams to the Dollar, an inflation rate of 2%, and a 3% increase in foreign demand directed toward Morocco, excluding phosphate products and derivatives, in 2026. The report, published on the Ministry of Economy and Finance’s website, suggests that an average agricultural season will lead to accelerated growth in agricultural value added, estimated at 7.9%. Non-agricultural value added is expected to continue growing at a rate of 4% in 2026.

The report indicates a slowdown in the growth of net taxes on subsidies, from 7% in 2025 to 4.8% in 2026, which would reduce this component’s contribution to GDP. On the demand side, final consumption is expected to contribute around 3.3 percentage points, driven by a 3.9% increase in household consumption spending, contributing 2.3 percentage points to GDP growth.

Foreign demand directed toward Morocco is anticipated to grow by 3% in 2026, following a 2.7% growth in 2025 and a contraction of -0.9% in 2024. Consequently, export growth is forecasted to moderately accelerate to 7.9% in 2026, compared to 7.1% the previous year. Imports are expected to stabilize, with a growth rate of 6.9% in 2026, slightly down from 7% in 2025.

The report notes that growth will be driven by exports, which are projected to contribute 3.4 percentage points to GDP growth. However, imports will exert a negative contribution of -3.5 percentage points, resulting in a near-zero net contribution from external trade.